Things are going to get a lot harder. If you don’t fit into the conservative, Christian-nationalist mold. Expect harassment, threats, and restrictions on your privacy and basic freedoms.
As we transition into that world, it’s important to understand what your risk profile looks like. A risk profile is the amount of risk you’re willing to take based on the likely outcome if that risk occurs. The amount of risk you’re willing to take is often referred to as a risk appetite.
In the coming years, there are a few groups that are most likely to be targeted, ranging from most to least. Today we’re starting with the highest risk.
Trans and Gender Nonconforming People
I think it’s unfortunately very obvious that the right has made Trans folks a major bogeyman for their cause. Access to trans healthcare, being able to be trans in public, and access to services and support as a trans person are going to be more difficult.
Those in red states can expect to see any discrimination protections to be fully removed or just unenforced. If you’re trans and not out publicly, coming out is going to carry additional risks, especially if you’re in a red state. We’ve seen the insane vigor of republicans and christian nationalists have put into getting books banned. Those same people will turn their gaze toward those they can find are trans and attempt to get them fired from their jobs and evicted or harassed from their homes.
Reproductive Rights Organizers and Users
Another pillar of the right’s agenda has been to eliminate access to reproductive freedoms. We can see that red states are eager to ban abortion access entirely or to limit it so severely that it becomes effectively banned. We should expect to see those bans attempt to be federalized under a Trump administration and access to medication-based abortion severely restricted.
The Heritage Foundation, creators of the Project 2025 handbook and chief campaigners of Supreme Court selections and republican fundraising, have been pressuring the incoming administration to remove access to birth control as well.
Before the government transitions, stock up on prescription birth control while you’re able to do so. If you don’t currently have a prescription, get one. In some states, pharmacists can prescribe birth control directly with no need1 to see a doctor. You can request up to a 1 year supply of birth control by prescription to create a personal buffer.
If you’re not able to get a prescription, over-the-counter birth control is available and sold at many pharmacies. Also, in most places, morning-after emergency contraception is also available over the counter (Costco seems to provide this at an especially cost-effective price).
If you yourself don’t have a womb, creating your own stock of condoms and emergency contraction is still valuable for yourself, your sexual partners, and your friends.
Again, if you’re going to be seeking these services, assisting others with getting them, or advocating for them; you are going to be targeted heavily. Two red states already have criminalized assisting a minor in obtaining an abortion, and these sorts of laws are likely to expand beyond these two states and beyond minors.
These sorts of laws highlight why personal privacy must be maintained, restored, and strengthened. The “privacy doesn’t matter if you have nothing to hide” crowd needs to read the room and shut the hell up. Traveling for an abortion will require the highest level of secrecy, and doing that today is very difficult. I’ll be making a post in the future on some steps that could be taken to help, but ultimately you want to have a stockpile of what resources you need so you never end up in this position.
Undocumented Immigrants
Trump and his supporters have entered a furor around “mass deportations”, and people will pressure them to carry out that plan. It’s critical to understand that for republicans, “illegal immigrants” are not just those immigrants who came to the US and committed crimes (in fact, the level of crime committed by immigrants is well below the average crime committed by citizens).
When republicans say “illegal immigrants” they have referenced those who have applied for asylum on arrival, those who have overstayed visas, those who have entered outside of a border checkpoint, and many other groups. It’s clear that republicans consider any immigrants that they don’t like as illegal, regardless of their actual status.
It’s also unlikely if millions of people are targeted for deportation that they will apply any level of nuance to the selection process. It’s highly likely given the history of Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), Customs and Border Protection (CBP), and the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) broadly that any enforcement will be highly racist and have a limited chance to appeal.
If you’re an immigrant to the US, now is the time to review your status and ensure your documents are up to date. If you’re married to an American but haven’t gone through the process to get your Green Card, and after three years, naturalize; now is the time to start that process. Typically taking affirmation action to correct your status is given a lot of leeway within the U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services and they will issue you extensions and temporary documents as needed. Get an immigration lawyer. If you can’t afford one, contact Pro Bono legal services near you to get help.
Do not wait until DHS finds or reaches out to you. You have a lot better chance if you begin to legalize your status first. If you don’t have legal status, and after speaking to a lawyer you don’t have a path to get legal status, you should have a prepared exit plan as the U.S. is likely to become much harder to live in over the next 4 years.
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